LONDON, Feb 4 (Reuters) – Aluminium is expected to be the top performer among the London Metal Exchange (LME) base metals pack in 2025, with analysts forecasting a supply shortfall of the light metal this year. No-one expects anything other than continued nickel oversupply both this year and next. Median forecasts for copper, tin, nickel and lead have all been cut since Reuters’ last quarterly poll in October, reflecting concern about the demand impact from a tariff trade war. Supply dynamics are top of analysts’ minds in terms of likely winners and losers this year but a troubled macro picture hangs over the industrial metals complex. The average LME cash aluminium price rose by 4.9% year-on-year in 2024 and is set to climb another 6.3% to $2,573.50 per metric ton in 2025, according to the median forecast of 33 analysts participating in the January poll. Underpinning the higher price forecast is an expected shift in market dynamics to a supply shortfall. Nickel is the conviction bear call even after the average LME cash price fell by almost 22% last year. The outcome was little changed from the October poll, suggesting a hardening conviction in the metal’s bullish prospects.
Analysts swung their consensus to a market deficit of 8,000 tons in 2025 from oversupply of 100,000 tons in the previous poll. China’s national output was running at an annualised 43.9 million tons at the end of 2024, close to the 45.0 million cap. While the average cash price is expected to rise by 3% to $9,425 per ton this year, the median forecast is 4.8% lower than the October poll. And right now the macro outlook is looking ever more stormy after U.S. Zinc’s premium over sister metal lead will also ease since the consensus is for lead prices to average a steady $2,050 both this year and next. Moreover, analysts lifted their zinc price expectations from the October poll against the broader trend. If the world’s largest producer has run out of expansion potential, it’s far from clear how the rest of the world is going to fill the output gap. Zinc is forecast to be the second-best performer this year with the average cash price expected to increase by 4.2% to $2,895 per ton. A market expected to register massive oversupply has turned out to be surprisingly tight as a shortfall of mined concentrates drags down global metal production. This tells you how much the zinc narrative has changed in the last three months. Donald Trump imposed a 10% tariff on imports of Chinese goods. The market spent much of last year looking for signs of revival in China’s giant manufacturing sector and this year is shaping up to be no different. This should be no great surprise since copper is the LME metal most sensitive to shifts in macro sentiment. However, that should change this year as mine supply recovers and analysts expect zinc prices to weaken over 2025 and 2026. Indeed, zinc is the only LME base metal projected to fall in price next year. The carefully calibrated Chinese response offers some hope that trade talks could avert a full trade war but copper is particularly sensitive to any negative consequences for China, the world’s largest buyer of the red metal. Tariffs and the threat of more to come muddy the waters. The deficit is expected to grow to 365,000 tons in 2026 with the average price lifting further to $2,626 per ton. Analysts are dialing back expectations for copper’s potential upside. Tightness in the alumina market has recently buoyed the aluminium price but the bigger structural supply constraint is China’s smelter capacity cap.
Which says much about how difficult it is to read this small but profoundly opaque market.
The median nickel forecast for 2025 has also been downgraded by a hefty 5.9% to $16,265 per ton since October as market oversupply becomes increasingly visible in the form of rising LME stocks. Tin has been a particularly volatile market over the last couple of years and there’s little consensus as to what is next in store for the soldering metal. Which says much about how difficult it is to read this small but profoundly opaque market. But having already fallen so heavily over the last year, analysts don’t think there’s much further downside. The betting seems to be that Indonesia, the world’s dominant producer, will put the brakes on its runaway production growth to shore up prices. The consensus is for LME cash nickel to bottom out at an average $15,550 per ton in the current quarter before edging steadily higher to $16,750 in the fourth quarter. The opinions expressed here are those of the author, a columnist for Reuters. But that masks a very wide range of expectations, stretching from a low of $23,750 to a high of $33,000 per ton. The price recovery is expected to continue into 2026 with a median cash price forecast of $17,637 per ton.
If you’re as magpie-like about jewellery as I am, you’ll always be on the lookout for new brands and original pieces to add to your collection. Otiumberg positions itself as a demi-fine jewellery brand. Her signature T-bar necklaces have been worn by the likes of Taylor Swift. Tilly Sveaas founded her eponymous brand in 2016. Born in Hong Kong to British-Norwegian parents, London-based Tilly has been a jewellery designer for over 25 years, creating her first pieces during an extended trip to Bali, where she still produces to this day. This British brand was launched in the autumn of 2024 by Tofi Caroline Adedoyin, a former investment banking director. If you love keeping things unique and prefer to shop independent, these jewellery brands are worth checking out and keeping in mind for your next purchase. But along with the prominent brands we all know and love, there are a load of under-the-radar gems (no pun intended) out there just waiting to be discovered. Their goal is to make pieces that ‘will be your go-to for years to come’. The brand’s founders, sisters Christie and Rosanna Wollenberg, believe you shouldn’t just save beautiful jewellery for best, so the sculptural rings and earrings are as practical as they are elegant. There are so many amazing affordable and mid-range jewellery brands out there today, with a plethora of choice no matter what your style. All Grove & Vae jewellery is designed in London, and created using 14k gold vermeil and rhodium-plated sterling silver.