WASHINGTON, March 17 (Reuters) – U.S. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast retail sales, which are mostly goods and are not adjusted for inflation, advancing 0.6% after a previously reported 0.9% drop in January. Longer-dated U.S. Treasury yields slipped while shorter-dated ones rose. Stocks on Wall Street were higher. Sales increased 3.1% year-on-year in February. Monthly sales were lifted by a 2.4% surge in receipts from online stores. That decline followed hefty gains in the fourth quarter and winter storms in many parts of the country in January as well as wildfires in California. It sketched a picture of a cautious consumer, with sales at restaurants and bars declining by the most in 13 months amid deteriorating sentiment. With consumer sentiment sinking to a near 2-1/2-year low in March, sales could struggle in the months ahead. Nonetheless, the report from the Commerce Department on Monday suggested that the economy continued to grow in the first quarter, though at a moderate pace. Retail sales rose 0.2% last month after a downwardly revised 1.2% decline in January, which was the biggest drop since November 2022, the Commerce Department’s Census Bureau said. Economists view dining out as a key indicator of household finances. Retailers, including Kohl’s, Macy’s, Walmart and Target have tempered sales expectations amid mounting inflation and recession fears related to the tariffs. February as consumers pulled back on discretionary spending, reinforcing the growing uncertainty over the economy against the backdrop of tariffs and mass firings of federal government workers. The dollar eased against a basket of currencies. Samuel Tombs, chief U.S. Some believed cold weather could have kept people at home. Receipts at food services and drinking places, the only services component in the report, declined 1.5%. That was the largest drop since January 2024 and followed an unchanged reading in January. President Donald Trump’s raft of tariffs, which have unleashed a trade war, has ignited worries about inflation as well as job and income losses, developments that could undercut consumer spending. But receipts at auto dealerships fell 0.4% after dropping 3.7% in January. Mass layoffs of public workers as part of an unprecedented campaign by the Trump administration to shrink the federal government are also seen hurting spending.

Bank of America card data showed early signs of softening discretionary spending such as at restaurants in February in the Washington D.C. The economy grew at a 2.3% pace in the fourth quarter. Rising inventories as consumer spending slows could, however, add to GDP growth. Federal Reserve officials meeting on Tuesday and Wednesday are expected to leave the U.S. Financial markets expect the Fed to resume cutting borrowing costs in June after it paused its easing cycle in January amid a darkening economic outlook. Lydia Boussour, senior economist at EY-Parthenon. The Atlanta Fed is currently forecasting GDP contracting at a 2.1% pace this quarter. Economists expect consumer spending growth to slow to as low as a 1.2% annualized rate this quarter from the October-December quarter’s robust 4.2% pace. Scott Anderson, chief U.S. 4.25%-4.50% range, having reduced it by 100 basis points since September, and continue to assess the economic impact of the Trump administration’s policies. Retail sales excluding automobiles, gasoline, building materials and food services increased 1.0% in February after a downwardly revised 1.0% decline in January. Maryland and Virginia. A stock market selloff could curb spending, predominantly driven by high-income households, while rising food prices could squeeze low-income households. These so-called core retail sales correspond most closely with the consumer spending component of gross domestic product and were previously reported to have dropped 0.8% in January. But most economists’ estimates range from as tepid as a 0.5% growth rate to as high as a 1.3% pace. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said early this month the economy might slow as it transitions from public spending towards more private spending, calling it a “detox period.” On Sunday, Bessent said there were “no guarantees” there will not be a recession in the United States.

Sterling Silver Skull Ring

Ever snapped up an on-trend ring from the high street only to find that it leaves your finger with a strange green hue after just one wear? And who’s got thousands lying spare to splurge on a ring? Before entering the jewellery world, Rosanna lived in Buenos Aires, Barcelona and New York, while Christie worked for Burberry and Louis Vuitton. Their backgrounds have given their designs a contemporary twist, with inspiration taken from all over the world. The brainchild of stylish sisters Christie and Rosanna Wollenberg, the brand was born after they struggled to find elegant, everyday jewellery that wouldn’t break the bank. And luckily the fashion industry offers them the perfect compromise: demi-fine jewellery. What to buy: A huggie hoop – the brand’s 9-carat gold version (£127 per earring) is a bestseller. Women of all ages and walks of life are stacking rings on every finger and adorning their lobes with rows of earrings. Think stacking rings, delicate hoops and personalised charms. There’s no bulk ordering here – stock levels are kept to a minimum, which means less waste and therefore purse-friendly prices. Here are the brands you need to know… Everything is ethically and sustainably made and the duo keep costs down by designing seasonless pieces that are crafted by hand. Plus the use of sterling silver, lower-carat golds or gold-plated silver – along with semi-precious moonstones, quartz, topaz, turquoise or teeny pavé diamonds cultivated in laboratories – means that prices are reasonable. My favourite pieces are the personalised yellow gold and pearl letter necklace charms – visit this link – (below) and the pearl and white sapphire huggie (below). The label, which eschews trends in favour of enduring pieces, fast became a go-to among fashion editors and celebrities (Margot Robbie is a loyal customer). Costume jewellery may be fun and a bargain but it tarnishes easily, so isn’t ideal for everyday wear. Bridging the gap between fine and fashion jewellery, these mid-price brands cater for women who want to indulge in timeless, good-quality pieces without the hefty price tag. However, the trend for piling on jewellery isn’t going away. This accessibility, combined with clever celebrity collaborations, has seen the number of demi-fine jewellery brands boom, so that covetable pieces are no longer just a gift for special occasions but something we can treat ourselves to. Demi-fine pieces aren’t packed with low-grade metals such as nickel or copper, which fade quickly and aggravate skin.

Sustainability and ethical responsibility are at the heart of Laura Vann’s jewellery. Her glittering, gem-infused designs include the art deco-like Daphne earrings (below right), which have been worn by Meghan Markle, and the Freya necklace (below), which is made from 18-carat yellow gold-plate with synthetic baguette-cut emeralds (they are much less expensive than natural gems). Catapulted into mainstream popularity by collaborations with TV presenter Laura Whitmore and fashion blogger Estée Lalonde, not to mention red-carpet sightings on the likes of Ellie Goulding, Cara Delevingne and Sienna Miller, Daisy London has become one of Britain’s favourite jewellery brands. Laura, whose father worked in Birmingham’s Jewellery Quarter wholesaling fine and costume jewellery, studied fashion journalism before deciding to join the family business and switching to jewellery design instead. What to buy: The Chloe black agate circle necklace (below left) – with its silver chain and striking pendant – is a favourite of mine. She recently added a diamond engagement ring collection (from £2,500). Founded by a father-and-son duo in 2009, the label is now helmed by creative director Ruth Bewsey, who was also the company’s first employee. She is passionate about jewellery that can be layered and worn every day and the brand majors in bold shapes and distinctive designs made from sterling silver or 18-carat-gold-plated sterling silver. Athena earrings, £119, and necklaces (from top), Vita, £115, Alexa, £99, and. Her brand is now stocked in John Lewis and Harvey Nichols and she has a loyal following that includes celebrities such as Daisy Lowe and Katy Perry.